SPAIN GOES TO THE POLLS!

Could Housing Give Pedro Sánchez One Last Chance? And What Does It Mean for Valencia? Spain will vote on 29 November — and for millions of people in Valencia, the election may feel less like a referendum on Sánchez than a referendum on something much more immediate: whether ordinary people can still afford to live here.

For Pedro Sánchez, this is the moment when the political clock stops.

On Monday 5 October, the Spanish Prime Minister announced that he was dissolving Parliament and bringing forward Spain’s general election to Sunday 29 November 2026, months before the vote originally expected in 2027.

His decision came after a bruising parliamentary defeat over housing — an issue which has exploded from a policy problem into a national political movement.

And nowhere is that transformation more visible than in Valencia.

THE ELECTION THAT NOBODY EXPECTED THIS SOON

Sánchez’s announcement was carefully framed as a choice about Spain’s future.

He argued that his progressive coalition had delivered economic growth, employment, social measures and investment, but that a fragmented Parliament had made it increasingly difficult to govern.

The immediate trigger, however, was housing.

Congress had rejected Government measures intended to protect vulnerable tenants and prevent evictions, following weeks of mounting public anger over the housing crisis and the case of Maricarmen Abascal, an 87-year-old woman whose threatened eviction became a national symbol.

The result was extraordinary.

What had been discussed for years as an economic problem suddenly became a street-level political issue.

On 3 October, tens of thousands of people demonstrated across Spain, with protests taking place in around 50 cities. Valencia was among the cities where the demonstrations became particularly tense.

The election announcement followed almost immediately.

For Sánchez, housing is now not simply another item on the political programme.

It is the battlefield.

VALENCIA: WHERE THE HOUSING CRISIS HAS BECOME PERSONAL

Walk around Valencia today and the housing question is difficult to escape.

The city has changed dramatically over the past decade. It has become more international, more fashionable and increasingly attractive to visitors, investors, students, digital workers and people relocating from abroad.

That success has had a price.

Rents have risen sharply, while many Valencians — particularly younger people — find themselves competing for accommodation with a much larger and wealthier pool of potential tenants.

According to a recent analysis using Ministry of Housing and Idealista data, rental prices in the Valencian Community have risen by more than 100% in some areas since 2015. In Valencia city, the median asking rent has risen above €9 per square metre, with prices in many areas roughly doubling.

This creates a fascinating political paradox.

The international success of Valencia is part of what has helped make Valencia increasingly difficult to afford.

The city wants tourism.

It wants investment.

It wants international residents.

It wants universities, technology, culture and new businesses.

But the people who already live here also need somewhere to live.

And increasingly, those two realities are colliding.

COULD HOUSING BRING VOTES BACK TO THE LEFT?

This is where Sánchez’s gamble becomes particularly interesting.

The latest polling is certainly not comfortable reading for the PSOE.

The average of polls compiled by RTVE on 5 October put the PP on 137 seats, with PSOE on 104 and Vox on 65. On those figures, the PP and Vox together would be above the 176-seat threshold required for an absolute majority.

Other recent surveys have also placed the PP ahead of PSOE, although the exact figures vary considerably between pollsters.

So why call an election now?

One answer is that Sánchez may believe that the political landscape could change once housing becomes the central question of the campaign.

Importantly, there is evidence that housing intervention enjoys unusually broad public support.

A 40dB survey for El País and Cadena SER found that 67.5% of respondents supported limiting rents, while 82.4% supported increasing social housing. Support for intervention extended beyond traditional left-wing voters, including significant numbers of PP and Vox voters. Only 21.7% favoured leaving prices entirely to the market.

That is politically significant.

Housing is not necessarily a traditional left-versus-right issue anymore.

It is becoming a young-versus-old, tenant-versus-owner and affordability-versus-investment question — and those divisions do not fit neatly into the old political map.

SÁNCHEZ’S NEW HOUSING GAMBLE

The Prime Minister has clearly decided that he wants to fight the election on this terrain.

On Tuesday 6 October, his Government approved two new housing decrees after Parliament had rejected the previous proposals.

One of the new measures is designed to provide immediate protection against certain evictions and includes €10 billion in interest-free loans of up to €50,000 for people with stable incomes who want to buy their first home.

Another proposal would extend rental contracts, although the Government does not currently have sufficient parliamentary support to guarantee its approval.

Sánchez’s message is straightforward:

Housing is a right, not simply another financial asset.

But the counterargument is equally straightforward.

Property developers and other critics argue that rent controls and increased regulation could discourage investment and ultimately reduce the supply of housing — making the problem worse rather than better.

That argument will almost certainly feature heavily during the campaign.

The election therefore presents Spanish voters with a genuine policy question:

Should governments intervene more aggressively in the housing market, or could intervention make the shortage worse?

AND WHAT ABOUT VALENCIA’S FOREIGN RESIDENTS?

For Valencia’s enormous international community, the election is particularly interesting — but there is an important distinction.

Not every foreign resident can vote in a Spanish general election.

For the 29 November general election, the electorate consists of Spanish citizens. A British, American, Australian or other non-Spanish resident living in Valencia does not acquire the right to vote in a general election simply by being legally resident here.

EU citizens and certain other foreign residents can have voting rights in municipal elections, subject to the applicable rules, but that is different from voting for the Spanish Congress and Senate.

However, that does not mean the election is irrelevant to Valencia’s international population.

Far from it.

Housing policy affects foreign residents just as directly as Spanish residents.

A British couple renting in Ruzafa, an Italian family looking for a long-term home in Patraix, a Colombian worker trying to rent an apartment in Benimaclet or a German professional buying a first home in Valencia all have a stake in the housing debate.

So do the Spanish citizens who have moved abroad.

Spanish nationals living outside Spain can vote in general elections through the overseas electoral census, CERA.

And Valencia’s international character means that what happens here is increasingly part of a much wider European housing story.

THE IMMIGRATION QUESTION

Housing and immigration are also becoming increasingly difficult to separate politically.

Spain’s population has grown substantially through immigration, while cities such as Valencia have attracted residents from across Europe and Latin America and increasingly from further afield.

For the left, immigration is generally associated with integration, labour-market participation and social inclusion.

For the right, immigration is more often discussed through the lenses of border control, public services, security and pressure on housing.

But there is another possibility.

Housing could become the point where the two debates collide.

If rents are rising because demand is increasing faster than supply, the question becomes how much of that pressure is caused by immigration, tourism, foreign investment, short-term rentals, domestic migration — and simply the failure to build enough affordable homes.

These are not interchangeable phenomena.

And Valencia voters may increasingly demand answers that go beyond slogans.

THE VALENCIA TEST

There is another reason Valencia matters.

The political arithmetic here could be extremely important.

The Valencian Community has historically been a significant electoral battleground, and the local political reaction to the November election already shows how seriously the parties are taking it.

The Valencian PP says it expects to be the leading force in the region.

The PSPV believes Valencia can contribute to a Sánchez victory.

Vox wants to increase its representation.

In other words, everyone knows that Valencia matters.

And some Valencian constituencies could be highly competitive.

In the Marina Alta, for example, PSOE and PP were separated by just 445 votes in the 2023 general election.

That is the sort of margin that makes every issue — housing, pensions, immigration, tourism, employment, agriculture, the economy and the cost of living — potentially significant.

THE YOUNG VOTER PROBLEM

Perhaps the most fascinating question is what happens to younger voters.

For years, the Spanish left has depended heavily on younger and urban voters.

But recent polling analysis suggests that this group can no longer be taken for granted.

An analysis of CIS polling published this week found that Vox has gained ground among 18–34-year-olds, while PSOE, Sumar and Podemos have lost support among younger and lower-income voters.

That makes the housing crisis particularly important.

Because the generation most affected by impossible rents and difficulty buying a home is also a generation whose political loyalties are changing.

The old assumption that young voters automatically move towards the left is looking increasingly unsafe.

CAN SÁNCHEZ TURN THE ARGUMENT AROUND?

This is where caution is required.

The current polling picture is difficult for PSOE, and the latest RTVE poll average places the PP and Vox in a position that could produce a parliamentary majority if those figures were translated directly into seats.

But polls are snapshots, not results.

There are nearly eight weeks between the election announcement and polling day.

And this election is being fought under unusually fluid circumstances.

Housing has moved from the background to the front page.

The streets have become politically active.

The Government has introduced new measures.

The opposition has a clear opportunity to attack Sánchez over years of housing policy and parliamentary instability.

And voters who have previously regarded politics as distant may suddenly have a very simple question:

“Can I afford to live here?”

That question could resonate very differently from arguments about parliamentary procedure, coalition negotiations or constitutional politics.

THE BIG UNKNOWN: WHAT HAPPENS TO THE LEFT?

There is another enormous variable.

The left is not simply PSOE.

Sumar, Podemos and regional progressive parties also compete for voters who might otherwise support Sánchez.

The RTVE polling average currently suggests a substantial fall for Sumar compared with its 2023 representation.

That creates a complicated electoral equation.

If housing motivates disillusioned left-wing voters to return to the ballot box, it could benefit the progressive bloc.

But if those voters remain divided between several parties — or stay at home — the arithmetic becomes very different.

Meanwhile, Vox has been gaining support in several polling series, including among some younger voters.

So the housing protests could potentially energise voters without necessarily determining which party receives that energy.

NOVEMBER 29: A REFERENDUM ON WHAT KIND OF SPAIN?

For Valencia, this election is about much more than Pedro Sánchez.

It is about what kind of city and country Spain wants to become.

Do we want Valencia to continue attracting international residents, investors, tourists and new businesses — while somehow ensuring that local people can still afford to live here?

How much regulation should governments impose on landlords?

Should Spain dramatically expand public and social housing?

How should tourism accommodation be regulated?

Should investment in property be encouraged or restricted?

What role should immigration play in Spain’s future workforce?

And perhaps most importantly:

Who should pay the price when housing becomes unaffordable — the tenant, the landlord, the taxpayer, the investor, or the Government?

These are not easy questions.

Nor are they exclusively left-wing or right-wing questions.

THE ELECTION THAT STARTED WITH A HOME

There is something striking about the way this election has arrived.

It did not begin with a grand foreign-policy crisis.